Panellists at last week’s IPE 360 conference in London highlighted a range of political concerns for investors – not all of which were necessarily on the radar yet.Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon Asset Management, warned of the potential for “policy mistakes” in China in the near future.“Its desire to project a military force as powerful as their GDP on the global scale could lead to them interfering more than the US,” he said.Roughly 60% of global GDP was generated in emerging markets, Reinhart said, and half of that emanated from China. “Global GDP has actually been less volatile over the last few years because much of it is being increased in a region that delivers growth at 6.5% year-on-year,” Reinhart said.But he urged investors to “consider the tail risk in China”.With emerging markets getting wealthier but global GDP growth shrinking, some parts of society were being left out in the developed world – leading to the rise of populism.Reinhart said: “These global economic readjustments create resentment and there is no growth to appease the anger, which in turn leads to voter resentment against trade, migration, etc, and to more geopolitical risk.”Turning to the US, where the effect of populism has been arguably most prevalent, Reinhart said his biggest concern was “thinking about the day when three Republican senators say they want to run for president. This would mean there is no majority government anymore and it would be an incentive for [president Donald] Trump to use executive action wherever he can.”BrexitFor Anthony Arnull, Barber Professor of Jurisprudence at Birmingham Law School, the greatest political worries were related to Brexit – in particular the difficulties facing the UK government when seeking to strike new trade deals after it leaves the EU.Apart from the “chaotic lack of preparation” both leading up to the Brexit vote as well as to the negotiations with the EU, Arnull highlighted that the UK government’s plan to “peel off” some members from the bloc was “not looking very realistic”.“The EU does not welcome the UK’s departure but it is now in a post-referendum phase, adjusted to the idea that UK is leaving,” Arnull said. “It might even think the EU will develop faster without the UK, and this is a difficult dynamic for the UK to deal with.”More uncertainty over trade was added by Donald Trump, he said. Trump has promised both German chancellor Angela Merkel and UK prime minister Theresa May that their respective markets would be “first on the list” for a trade deal. “Now the UK does not know where it is on this list,” Arnull said.Finally, Ian McKnight, CIO at the Royal Mail Pension Plan in the UK, highlighted Italy’s forthcoming election as a potential flashpoint.Discussing potential triggers for an equity market selloff, McKnight said: “There could be something with the Italian election coming up next year. A lot of Italian MPs – as I understand it – will be against the EU. That’s potentially a catastrophic event.”Italy’s next election must be held no later than 20 May next year.See the July/August edition of IPE for a Special Report on Italy’s pension system.
Jeffrey A. Bedel, age 42, of Batesville, Indiana passed away on Tuesday, August 16, 2016 in Sonora, California at Sonora Regional Medical Center, after a hard fought battle with pancreatic cancer. Jeff was born November 18, 1973 in Greensburg, Indiana to Thomas and Judy (nee: Stenger) Bedel. Jeff was a 1992 graduate of Batesville High School. He was most recently employed by First Group America in Cincinnati, Ohio as a garnishment representative until his illness made work too difficult.Jeff was a unique individual, who grabbed life by the horns and was the life of the party. He had many hobbies and interests throughout his life, including a childhood love for insects, leading to years of studying entomology. During those studies in high school, he was also involved in many other FFA activities. It was throughout his high school years that he acquired the nickname ‘Rude Dog’. Also as a kid, he was obsessed with maps, which was a passion that followed him over life’s journeys. Additionally, Jeff will be remembered by his love for music, sports, photography, bicycling, craft beer, social media and travel. When Jeff was diagnosed with his terminal illness, he inspired many by his dream of traveling to all 50 states. In his remaining 20 months, he was able to make it to 49 states. Last week, with much determination, Jeff embarked upon his final state, Hawaii. Unfortunately, he fell short of his ultimate goal and instead ended with the adventure of a lifetime.Spending time with family and friends is what Jeff treasured most. He especially adored his nieces and nephews who affectionately referred to him as ‘Uncle Bozo’. Jeff was known to spoil them like they were his own. Once back home in Batesville, he rarely missed a sporting event, musical, or any other opportunity to lavish love and attention on his family. He was universally adored by all who knew him and will be sorely missed by all.Survivors include his father, Thomas Bedel, of Hamburg, brothers and sister-in-laws, Tim and Jeannie Bedel of Lanesville, Indiana and Greg and Jill Bedel of Hamburg, sisters and brother-in-laws, Becky and Kurt Amberger, of Hamburg and Kim and Cyrus Screwvala of Greensburg, nieces and nephews, Kaitlin, Adam and Alex Bedel, Rachel, Nicole and Max Amberger, and Amelia and Ashley Bedel, also numerous aunts, uncles, cousins and friends. Jeff was preceded in death by his mother, Judy Bedel, on December 12, 2014. He is also preceded in death by paternal grandparents, Alvin and Rita Bedel, maternal grandparents, Harry and Helen Stenger and maternal step grandmother, Mary Stenger.There will be a Celebration of Life to honor Jeff on Saturday, August 20, 2016, from 4-10 PM at the Knights of Columbus Hall, 624 Delaware Road, Batesville, IN 47006. It was Jeff’s wishes to donate his body to science for medical research. The family requests no gifts.
The Wisconsin football team released its depth chart Monday in anticipation of its prime-time matchup against No. 3 Alabama Saturday. While Walker Williams and Hayden Biegel are listed as starters on the right side of the offensive line, Joe Rudolph, University of Wisconsin offensive coordinator and offensive line coach, said that isn’t set in stone.Rudolph said Micah Kapoi, who practiced with the first team the past two weeks of training camp, could still rotate in and Rudolph expects him to play at some point Saturday.If Kapoi does enter the game, it’s likely he’d take some snaps for Williams at right guard. It’s hard to envision Kapoi playing at right tackle and taking Biegel’s place since he hasn’t played the tackle position in college.Kapoi said although he would’ve liked to see his name as a starter, he sees it as a chance to prove himself.“Now I just need to lock everything in,” Kapoi said. “I’ve got the basics down. Now I just gotta get in the film room, that’s the biggest thing.”Kapoi is also listed as the backup center, a position he feels comfortable playing, he said.Biegel, Williams Return to PracticeBiegel had been sidelined for more than two weeks with a concussion. He’s battled concussions his entire playing career, he said.Williams, meanwhile, only had mild concussion-like symptoms and was out just a week. After Biegel and fellow right tackle Beau Benzschawel went down, Williams moved to tackle, but is now back at guard, which he prefers.“I’m feeling real comfortable at right guard, even though I can play tackle,” Williams said. “I think I might’ve found a home settling in at guard.”With their health back, Biegel and Williams have quite the challenge in front of them, when they’ll both be making their first career college starts.Alabama’s defensive line boasts three all-SEC defensive ends, A’Shawn Robinson (first-team), Jonathan Allen (second-team) and Jarran Reed (third-team).“I think it’s pretty big time if your first start is against Alabama and one of the best d-lines in the country,” Williams said. “It’s a great opportunity to see really how good we are.”One of the main challenges with that is the lack of time the right side has spent playing together. Tuesday was the first practice that Biegel and Williams had pads on together. Communication between the two was a point of emphasis for the pair during practice this week, they said. The challenge of playing together for the first time is exacerbated by the formidable Alabama defensive line.Regardless, Biegel said that despite the limited number of snaps with Williams to his inside, he feels comfortable with him there.“You always wish you could have more snaps with somebody,” Biegel said. “That’s just what it is. I’m comfortable right now working with Walker.”Williams said right now he and Biegel are erring on the side of more communication and still getting a feel for one another.“It’s one of those things where you don’t know exactly what they know, or you don’t know what they see,” Williams said.